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Uncertain Effects of Money and the Link between the Inflation Rate and Inflation Uncertainty

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  • Holland, A Steven
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    Abstract

    In the postwar period, high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper, the author argues that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and he presents evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

    Volume (Year): 31 (1993)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 39-51

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:31:y:1993:i:1:p:39-51

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    Cited by:
    1. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    2. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & Chandana Chakraborty & Serapio Byekwaso, 2012. "Uncertainty of inflation and inflation rate: Does credibility of inflation policy matter?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 95-110, September.
    3. Lawler, Phillip, 2007. "Strategic wage setting, inflation uncertainty and optimal delegation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1105-1118, December.
    4. Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
    5. Duca, John V. & Vanhoose, David D., 1998. "The Rise of Goods-Market Competition and the Decline in Wage Indexation: A Macroeconomic Approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-598, July.
    6. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    8. Pearce, Douglas K. & Sobue, Motoshi, 1997. "Uncertainty and the inflation bias of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 203-207, December.
    9. Apergis Nicholas, 1999. "Inflation Uncertainty and Momey Demand: Evidence from a Monetary Regime Changed and the Cases of Greece," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 21-30.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.
    11. Fletcher, Donna J. & Gulley, O. David, 1996. "Forecasting the real interest rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-76.

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