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The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • B. Balaji

    (Pondicherry University)

  • S. Raja Sethu Durai

    (Pondicherry University)

  • M. Ramachandran

    (Pondicherry University)

Abstract

This study examines the causal nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty. In this regard, conventional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models are used to measure inflation uncertainty and Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66:47–78, 1998; J Appl Econom 18:1–22, 2003) test is used to identify structural breaks in inflation. The empirical evidence derived from the monthly data for the period from June 1961 to April 2011 suggests that the measure of inflation uncertainty obtained from SV model is more reliable than the measure obtained from GARCH model and also the causal nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty seems to be significantly conditional upon the measure of uncertainty used. The structural break test identifies four episodes of inflation during the sample period, and the causality between inflation and its variability varies across different episodes. The inflation and its variance seem to be independent of each other during the first two regimes that cover the period from 1960 to 1980 and on the contrary, during the later period largely bidirectional causality is observed. Further, inflation seems to exert positive impact on inflation uncertainty, whereas inflation uncertainty has negative impact on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:14:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s40953-015-0027-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-015-0027-y
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    2. Ran TAO & Zheng-Zheng LI & Xiao-Lin LI & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "A Reexamination of Friedman-Ball’s Hypothesis in Slovakia - Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 41-54, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation uncertainty; GARCH models; Stochastic Volatility models; Multiple structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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