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Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Paesani, Paolo
  • Onorante, Luca

Abstract

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates their linkages in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly owing to exogenous shocks. A sequential dummy procedure provides further evidence of a structural break coinciding with the introduction of the euro and resulting in lower long-run uncertainty. It also appears that the direction of causality has been reversed, and that in the euro period the Friedman-Ball link is empirically supported, consistently with the idea that the ECB can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. JEL Classification: E31, E52, C22

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1229.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101229

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Keywords: ECB; EMU; GARCH Models; inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; time-varying parameters;

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Cited by:
  1. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  2. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
  4. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  5. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 111, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  7. Bossone, Biagio, 2014. "Liquidity and capital under uncertainty and changing market sentiment: A simple analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 98-105.

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