Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling

Contents:

Author Info

  • A. Kontonikas

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between inflation-uncertainty and the impact of inflation targeting using British data over the period 1972-2002. Uncertainty is proxied using the estimated conditional volatility from symmetric, asymmetric, and component GARCH-M models of inflation. The results indicate a positive relationship between past inflation and current uncertainty. We control for the indirect effect of lower average inflation throughout the last decade of inflation targeting and find that the adoption of an explicit target eliminates inflation persistence and reduces long-run uncertainty. Monetary authorities of implicit targeting countries should consider the extra benefits associated with formal targets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/329/efwps/02-28.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (John.Hunter)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 02-28.

as in new window
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-28

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  2. Stephen Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output volatility? An International Comparison of Policy Maker's Preferences and Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 69, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, . "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  4. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
  5. repec:fth:galeco:47 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  7. Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
  8. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  9. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
  10. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  11. Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
  12. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-84, May.
  13. Mike Joyce, 1995. "Modelling UK Inflation Uncertainty: The Impact of News and the Relationship with Inflation," Bank of England working papers 30, Bank of England.
  14. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  15. Pierre L. Siklos, 1999. "Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 46-58.
  16. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
  17. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1992. "Monetary Accommodation, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 461-80, May.
  18. Chorng-Huey Wong & Eric V. Clifton & H. L. Leon, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-Off," IMF Working Papers 01/166, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John.Hunter).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.