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Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling

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A. Kontonikas ()

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between inflation-uncertainty and the impact of inflation targeting using British data over the period 1972-2002. Uncertainty is proxied using the estimated conditional volatility from symmetric, asymmetric, and component GARCH-M models of inflation. The results indicate a positive relationship between past inflation and current uncertainty. We control for the indirect effect of lower average inflation throughout the last decade of inflation targeting and find that the adoption of an explicit target eliminates inflation persistence and reduces long-run uncertainty. Monetary authorities of implicit targeting countries should consider the extra benefits associated with formal targets.

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Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 02-28.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-28

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1991. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Short and Long Horizons," NBER Reprints 1522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Eric V. Clifton & H. L. Leon & Chorng-Huey Wong, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 01/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Pierre L. Siklos, 1999. "Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 46-58. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  19. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli & Nicola Spagnolo, 2006. "Stock Returns and Inflation: The Impact of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2005_11, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  3. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2007. "Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability: Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist?," Working papers 2007-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test," Working Papers 2005_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2006. "A two factor model to combine US inflation forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2191-2197, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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