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Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and a Common European Monetary Policy

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  • Fountas, Stilianos
  • Alexandra,Ioannidid

    ()
    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway)

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is investigated in six European Union countries for the period 1960 to 1999. EGARCH models are used to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty and then Granger methods are employed to test for causality between average inflation and inflation uncertainty. In all the European countries, except Germany, inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. However, in all countries except the UK, and possibly Italy, inflation uncertainty does not cause negative output effects implying that a common European monetary policy applied by the ECB might not lead to asymmetric real effects via the inflation uncertainty channel. Less robust evidence is found regarding the direction of the impact of a change in inflation uncertainty on inflation.In Germany, the Netherlands, and to a lesser extent Spain, increased inflation uncertainty lowers inflation while in the UK, Italy, and to a lesser extent France, increased inflation uncertainty raises inflation. These results are generally consistent with the existing rankings of Central Bank Independence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0054.

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Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision: 2001
Publication status: Published in Applied Economics Letters Vol.3 No. 7, 1996
Handle: RePEc:nig:wpaper:0054

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Related research

Keywords: EMU; Exponential GARCH; Inflation Uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August.
  2. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 0047, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
  3. Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  5. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  6. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
  8. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  9. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  10. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
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