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A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback

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  • Stilianos Fountas
  • Menelaos Karanasos
  • Marika Karanassou

Abstract

We examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using a GARCH model that allows for simultaneous feedback between the conditional mean and variance of inflation. We also derive a number of theoretical econometric results and illustrate the relevance of these results with an empirical example of the US monthly inflation process. Our results show that there is strong evidence in favour of a positive bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in agreement with the predictions of economic theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 00/24.

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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:00/24

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Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
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Keywords: Inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; GARCH-M.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
  4. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Moments of the ARMA-EGARCH Model," Discussion Papers 00/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
  5. Fountas, Stilianos, 2001. "The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 77-83, December.
  6. S. Fountas & A. Ioannidis & M. Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and a Common European Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 221-242, 03.
  7. Menelaos Karanasos, . "The Covariance Structure of Mixed ARMA Models," Discussion Papers 00/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  9. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
  10. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
  12. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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