Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan
AbstractThis paper is first attempt to measure and analyze inflation uncertainty in Pakistan and it provides several contributions. Using quarterly data from 1976:01 to 2008:02, at first stage we model inflation uncertainty as time varying process through GARCH framework. At second stage asymmetric behavior of inflation uncertainty is analyzed by using GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models, for further analysis of asymmetry and leverage effects, we developed news impact curves proposed by Pagan and Schwert (1990). Finally we investigate the causality and its direction between inflation and inflation uncertainty by using bivariate Granger-Causality test to know which inflation uncertainty hypothesis (Friedman-Ball or Cukierman- Meltzer) holds true for Pakistani data. We get two important results. First, GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models are more successful in capturing inflation uncertainty and its asymmetric behavior as compared to simple GARCH model. This can also be seen from news impact curves. Second, there is strong evidence that Friedman-Ball inflation uncertainty hypothesis holds true for Pakistan.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19488.
Date of creation: 08 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Inflation; Uncertainty; GJR-GARCH; EGARCH;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wasim Shahid Malik, 2006. "Money, Output, and Inflation: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 1277-1286.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," IMF Working Papers 06/60, International Monetary Fund.
- Allan D. Brunner & David P. Simon, 1995.
"Excess returns and risk at the long end of the Treasury market: an EGARCH-M approach,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
522, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunner, Allan D & Simon, David P, 1996. "Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 443-57, Fall.
- Hu, Michael Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Tsoukalas, Christos, 1997. "The European exchange rates before and after the establishment of the European Monetary System," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 235-253, October.
- Price, Simon & Nasim, Anjum, 1998. "Modelling inflation and the demand for money in Pakistan; cointegration and the causal structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, January.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- John Thornton, 2006. "High And Variable Inflation: Further Evidence On The Friedman Hypothesis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 167-171, 06.
- R. W. Hafer, 1985.
"Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis,"
1985-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hafer, R. W., 1986. "Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 365-372.
- Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1997. "High and variable inflation: Further evidence on the Friedman hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-68, January.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06.
- Eric Zivot, 2008. "Practical Issues in the Analysis of Univariate GARCH Models," Working Papers UWEC-2008-03-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000.
"A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback,"
414, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, . "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 0047, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- A. Steven Holland, 1984. "Does higher inflation lead to more uncertain inflation?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 15-26.
- John E. Golob, 1994. "Does inflation uncertainty increase with inflation?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 27-38.
- Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993.
"Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
- Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- repec:fth:galeco:47 is not listed on IDEAS
- Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
- Assad L. Baunto & Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud & Philippe Rous, 2007. "Money and uncertainty in the Philippines: A Friedmanite Perspective," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308663, HAL.
- Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
- Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007.
"The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan,"
2007:34, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.