Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach
AbstractIn this paper we model weekly excess returns of ten-year Treasury notes and long-term Treasury bonds from 1968 through 1993 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (EGARCH-M) approach. The results indicate the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity and a strong tendency for the ex-ante volatility of excess returns to increase more following negative excess return innovations compared with positive innovations of equal magnitude. In addition, increases in ex-ante volatility are associated in some subperiods with rising excess returns on longer-term instruments, although the slope of the yield curve and lagged excess returns generally remain significant predictors of excess returns.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal Journal of Financial Research.
Volume (Year): 19 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (Fall)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0270-2592
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Allan D. Brunner & David P. Simon, 1995. "Excess returns and risk at the long end of the Treasury market: an EGARCH-M approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 522, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
- Froot, Kenneth A, 1989.
" New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
- Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Dothan, L. Uri, 1978. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-69, March.
- Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990.
"Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 61-110.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1977. "Savings bonds, retractable bonds and callable bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 67-88, August.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Halkos, George E. & Papadamou, Stephanos T., 2006. "An investigation of bond term premia in international government bond indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 45-61, March.
- Nadia Saleem, 2008. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 99-128, Jul-Dec.
- Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
- M. Karanasos & J. Kim, 2003.
"Moments of the ARMA--EGARCH model,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 146-166, 06.
- Jonathan Batten & Francis In, 2006. "Dynamic interaction and valuation of quality yen Eurobonds in a multivariate EGARCH framework," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 881-892.
- Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
- Batten, Jonathan & Hogan, Warren & In, Francis, 2002. "Valuing Credit Spreads on Quality Australian Dollar Eurobonds in a Multivariate EGARCH Framework," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 115-28, March.
- Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Karunaratne, Neil Dias & Bhar, Ramprasad, 2011. "Regime-shifts and post-float inflation dynamics of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1941-1949, July.
- Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1998. "Modeling fixed income excess returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 409, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Apr 2000.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.