IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v45y2006i2p185-202.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsin S. Khan

    (Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund.)

  • Axel Schimmelpfennig

    (Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund.)

Abstract

This paper examines the factors that explain and help forecast inflation in Pakistan. A simple inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), an activity variable, the interest and the exchange rates, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Private sector credit growth and broad money growth are also good leading indicators of inflation which can be used to forecast future inflation developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:185-202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/185-202.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Riaz Riazuddin & Mahmood ul Hasan Khan, 2005. "Detection and Forecasting of Islamic Calendar Effects in Time series Data," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 25-34.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4977, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 341-368.
    5. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:feb11 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    7. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    2. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry & Munir A. S. Choudhary, 2006. "Why the State Bank of Pakistan should not Adopt Inflation Targeting," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 195-209.
    3. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    4. Cuevas, Víctor M., 2010. "The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    5. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    6. Levent Korap, 2009. "Parasal Buyume ve Tuketici Enflasyonu Degisim Orani Arasindaki Nedensellik Iliskisi Uzerine Bir Deneme: Turkiye Ornegi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 56-74, May.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 2005/105, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
    9. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    10. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    11. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    12. Ann Cavlovic & Kathleen Day, "undated". "Equalization and the Incentives for Growth: An Empirical Investigation of the "Tax-Back" Effect," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-23, Department of Finance Canada.
    13. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "What drives the global interest rate," Globalization Institute Working Papers 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    15. Erdenebat Bataa & Andrew Vivian & Mark Wohar, 2019. "Changes in the relationship between short‐term interest rate, inflation and growth: evidence from the UK, 1820–2014," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 616-640, October.
    16. Bragoudakis Zacharias G. & Zombanakis George A., 2017. "Earning a Peace Dividend in a Crisis Environment: The Greek Case," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-15, August.
    17. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Immigration Policy and Macroeconomic Performance in France," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 121-122, pages 279-308.
    18. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2015. "Price Transmissions During Financialization and Turmoil: New Evidence from North American and European Agricultural Futures," CQE Working Papers 3815, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    19. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    20. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:185-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.