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Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

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Author Info
Stilianos Fountas
Menelaos Karanasos
Jinki Kim

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Abstract

We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00164.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 68 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 319-343
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:68:y:2006:i:3:p:319-343

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  1. Menelaos Karanasosa & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0018, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. " Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," CDMA Working Paper Series 0806, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)," IZA Discussion Papers 3752, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Modeling Volatility Spillovers between the Variabilities of US Inflation and Output: the UECCC GARCH Model," Working Papers 0475, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Andreou Elena & Pelloni Alessandra & Sensier Marianne, 2008. "Is volatility good for growth? Evidence from the G7," wp.comunite 0041, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2009. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Negative Volatility Spillovers in the Unrestricted ECCC-GARCH Model," KOF Working papers 08-189, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2006. "Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated-anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0607197, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  11. Donal Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and Markov regime switching heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 125, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cronin, David & Kennedy, Bernard, 2007. "Does Uncertainty Impact Money Growth? A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/07, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  13. Elena Andreou & Marianne Sensier & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth?," Working Paper Series 37-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  14. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries," Discussion Paper Series 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
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