Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan
AbstractThe available evidence in Pakistansuggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper examines the relationship between the determinants of inflation and its volatility by using monthly data for 1990:M1-2007:M5. The determinants of inflation are estimated by a VAR analysis, which shows that inflation, the interest rate and money supply move together. A VAR model assumes constant error variance. We relaxed this assumption by employing an ARCH/GARCH model and conclude that inflation is volatile in nature. For measuring the qualitative nature of the inflationary process we used an EGARCH model. It confirms that the time effect model is significant. It also suggests that in the first four months of the calendar year, the inflationary shock is negative and it can, therefore, hamper growth.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (Jul-Dec)
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Web page: http://www.lahoreschoolofeconomics.edu.pk/EconomicsJournal/LJEIntro.aspx
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Inflation; Volatility; Pakistan; Money Supply; Interest Rate.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
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