Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective
AbstractThe primary purpose of this study is to model and analyze inflation volatility in ten selected Asian economies. We used quarterly data of inflation from 1987Q1 to 2008Q4 to model inflation volatility as time varying process through different symmetric and asymmetric GARCH specifications. We also proposed to model inflation volatility on the basis of cyclic component of inflation obtained from HP filter, instead of actual inflation when the latter does not fulfill the criterion of stationarity. Through news impact curves we tried to highlight the behavior of inflation volatility in response to lagged inflation shocks, under different GARCH specifications for selected economies. Bivariate granger causality test is also applied to analyze the direction of causality between inflation and different volatility estimates. We get few important results. At first, leverage parameter shows expected sign and is significant for almost all countries suggesting strong asymmetry in inflation volatility. The hyperbolic sign integral shape of news impact curves based on GJR-GARCH is not only consistent with the results of our previous study based on Pakistani data (Rizvi and Naqvi, 2008) but also highlight the importance of inflation stabilization programs particularly because of the subsequent evidences obtained in favor of bidirectional causality running between inflation and inflation volatility. We also found that cyclic component of inflation could be a suitable proxy of inflation for volatility estimation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19489.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Inflation Volatility; Uncertainty; GJR-GARCH; EGARCH; Asymmetry; Asia; Asian;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2010-01-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-01-16 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2010-01-16 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John E. Golob, 1994. "Does inflation uncertainty increase with inflation?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 27-38.
- A. Steven Holland, 1984. "Does higher inflation lead to more uncertain inflation?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 15-26.
- Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06.
- Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990.
"Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
- International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Apr).
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006.
"Inflation in Pakistan,"
The Pakistan Development Review,
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
- Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000.
"A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback,"
414, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 0047, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, . "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010.
"Does money matter in inflation forecasting?,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- John Thornton, 2006. "High And Variable Inflation: Further Evidence On The Friedman Hypothesis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 167-171, 06.
- Eric Zivot, 2008. "Practical Issues in the Analysis of Univariate GARCH Models," Working Papers UWEC-2008-03-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
- Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1997. "High and variable inflation: Further evidence on the Friedman hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-68, January.
- repec:fth:galeco:47 is not listed on IDEAS
- Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007.
"The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan,"
Macroeconomics Working Papers
22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:34, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997.
"Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Alain GUAY & Pierre SAINT-AMANT, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 77, pages 133-155.
- Brunner, Allan D & Simon, David P, 1996.
"Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach,"
Journal of Financial Research,
Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 443-57, Fall.
- Allan D. Brunner & David P. Simon, 1995. "Excess returns and risk at the long end of the Treasury market: an EGARCH-M approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 522, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Price, Simon & Nasim, Anjum, 1998. "Modelling inflation and the demand for money in Pakistan; cointegration and the causal structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, January.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Wasim Shahid Malik, 2006. "Money, Output, and Inflation: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 1277-1286.
- Assad L. Baunto & Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud & Philippe Rous, 2007. "Money and uncertainty in the Philippines: A Friedmanite Perspective," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308663, HAL.
- Hu, Michael Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Tsoukalas, Christos, 1997. "The European exchange rates before and after the establishment of the European Monetary System," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 235-253, October.
- Hildergart Ahumada & Lorena Garegnani, 1999. "Hodrik – Prescott filter in practice," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(4), pages 61-76.
- TF. Nas & MJ. Perry, 2000. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and monetary policy in Turkey: 1960-1998," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 170-180, 04.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.