Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
AbstractThis study examines relationship between Inflation and Inflation uncertainty for Pakistan using monthly data over 1957:1-2007:12. ARMA-GARCH model is applied to estimate conditional volatility of inflation. Findings of the study support Friedman-Ball hypothesis for Pakistan as Granger-causality test reveals that inflation affects inflation uncertainty positively. We find no evidence for inflation uncertainty affecting inflation rates as suggested by Cukierman & Meltzer (1986) and only unidirectional relation is evident with causality running from inflation to inflation uncertainty. High volatility persistence for inflation is also confirmed. Results of the study may be useful for policymakers at central bank to devise more efficient monetary policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.
Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econjournals.com
Friedman-Ball Hypothesis; Inflation Uncertainty; GARCH; Granger Causality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003.
"The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
187, Royal Economic Society.
- Kevin B. Grier & �lan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
- Bohara, Alok K & Sauer, Christine, 1994. "The Role of Inflation Uncertainty in Germany: Friedman's Hypothesis Revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 611-27.
- Kontonikas, A., 2004.
"Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling,"
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-543, May.
- A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1998.
"Causality Between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan,"
5021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fazal Husain & Tariq Mahmood, 1998. "Causality between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1155-1161.
- Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1998. "Causality between Money and Prices:Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Abdul Qayyum, 2006.
"Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan,"
The Pakistan Development Review,
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
- Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel & Fisunoglu, Mahir, 2008. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in Jordan, Philippines and Turkey: A long memory approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12.
- Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990.
"Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
- Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
- Menelaos Karanasos & Stefanie Schurer, 2008.
"Is the Relationship between Inflation and Its Uncertainty Linear?,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9, pages 265-286, 08.
- M. Karanasos & S. Schurer, 2006. "Is the relationship between ination and its uncertainty linear?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 463, Society for Computational Economics.
- Menelaos Karanasosa & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0018, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1997. "High and variable inflation: Further evidence on the Friedman hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-68, January.
- International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.