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Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

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Author Info

  • Sajid Amin Javed

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics,Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Saud Ahmad Khan

    (School of Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Azad Haider

    (School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University,Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Farzana Shaheen

    (Federal Urdu University of Arts, Sciences and Technology,Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This study examines relationship between Inflation and Inflation uncertainty for Pakistan using monthly data over 1957:1-2007:12. ARMA-GARCH model is applied to estimate conditional volatility of inflation. Findings of the study support Friedman-Ball hypothesis for Pakistan as Granger-causality test reveals that inflation affects inflation uncertainty positively. We find no evidence for inflation uncertainty affecting inflation rates as suggested by Cukierman & Meltzer (1986) and only unidirectional relation is evident with causality running from inflation to inflation uncertainty. High volatility persistence for inflation is also confirmed. Results of the study may be useful for policymakers at central bank to devise more efficient monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 348-356

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Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-03-12

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Related research

Keywords: Friedman-Ball Hypothesis; Inflation Uncertainty; GARCH; Granger Causality;

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References

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  1. Qayyum, Abdul, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2055, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  2. Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
  4. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  6. Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel & Fisunoglu, Mahir, 2008. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in Jordan, Philippines and Turkey: A long memory approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12.
  7. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  8. M. Karanasos & S. Schurer, 2006. "Is the relationship between ination and its uncertainty linear?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 463, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1998. "Causality between Money and Prices:Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  11. Bohara, Alok K & Sauer, Christine, 1994. "The Role of Inflation Uncertainty in Germany: Friedman's Hypothesis Revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 611-27.
  12. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  13. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1997. "High and variable inflation: Further evidence on the Friedman hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-68, January.
  14. Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
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