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The Role of Inflation Uncertainty in Germany: Friedman's Hypothesis Revisited

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  • Bohara, Alok K
  • Sauer, Christine

Abstract

The paper reconsiders Friedman's (1977) proposition that increased inflation uncertainty may have adverse real effects for the German case. A proxy for the unobservable uncertainty variable is obtained from the Kalman-filtering estimation of a time-varying parameter model of inflation. The measure is introduced into an output equation that also includes anticipated and unanticipated inflation, thus allowing tests of both the Friedman and the Macro Rational Expectations hypotheses. The empirical evidence does not provide strong support for Friedman's view. Unanticipated inflation, on the other hand, seems to play a significant role for German output growth in the short run.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 611-27

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:19:y:1994:i:4:p:611-27

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Cited by:
  1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2011. "The inflation-output nexus:empirical evidence from India, Brazil and South Africa," Financial Econometics Series 2011_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  2. Hachicha, Ahmed & Lean Hooi Hooi, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.

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