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Is the relationship between ination and its uncertainty linear?

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  • M. Karanasos

    () (Brunel university)

  • S. Schurer

    (Ruhr Graduate School in Economics)

Abstract

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation and monthly data in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden for the period 1962-2004 to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. In two out of the three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased nominal uncertainty affects inflation in all countries but not in the same manner. The results for Germany and the Netherlands support the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. In Sweden uncertainty about the future inflation appears to have a negative impact on inflation

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 463.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:463

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Keywords: GARCH-in-mean; In‡ation; Level e¤ect;

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References

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  1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
  4. S. Fountas & A. Ioannidis & M. Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and a Common European Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 221-242, 03.
  5. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008.
  6. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  7. Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06.
  9. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  10. F. Fornari & A. Mele, 2000. "Recovering the Probability Density Function of Asset Prices using Garch as Diffusion Approximations," THEMA Working Papers 2000-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  11. Pierre Giot and S»bastien Laurent, 2001. "Value-At-Risk For Long And Short Trading Positions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 94, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  13. Palm, F.C., 1996. "GARCH models of volatility," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-5761, Maastricht University.
  14. Conrad, C. & Karanasos, M., 2005. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 327-343, August.
  15. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
  16. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
  17. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 5.
  18. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  19. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 1997. "Weak convergence and distributional assumptions for a general class of nonliner arch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 205-227.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Campos, Nauro F & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)," IZA Discussion Papers 3752, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
  3. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.

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