Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Is the relationship between ination and its uncertainty linear?

Contents:

Author Info

  • M. Karanasos

    ()
    (Brunel university)

  • S. Schurer

    (Ruhr Graduate School in Economics)

Abstract

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation and monthly data in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden for the period 1962-2004 to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. In two out of the three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased nominal uncertainty affects inflation in all countries but not in the same manner. The results for Germany and the Netherlands support the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. In Sweden uncertainty about the future inflation appears to have a negative impact on inflation

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 463.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:463

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://comp-econ.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: GARCH-in-mean; In‡ation; Level e¤ect;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
  2. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06.
  3. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  4. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
  5. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  6. Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
  7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  8. F. Fornari & A. Mele, 2000. "Recovering the Probability Density Function of Asset Prices using Garch as Diffusion Approximations," THEMA Working Papers 2000-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  9. Fountas, Stilianos & Alexandra,Ioannidid, 2001. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and a Common European Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0054, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
  10. GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "Value-at-Risk for long and short trading positions," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1707, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  12. Pierre Giot and S»bastien Laurent, 2001. "Value-At-Risk For Long And Short Trading Positions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 94, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Sébastien Laurent, 2004. "Analytical Derivates of the APARCH Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 51-57, 08.
  14. Conrad Christian & Karanasos Menelaos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-38, December.
  15. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  16. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
  17. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  18. Conrad, C. & Karanasos, M., 2005. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 327-343, August.
  19. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
  20. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 1997. "Weak convergence and distributional assumptions for a general class of nonliner arch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 205-227.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.
  2. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
  3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Nonlinearities and the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt: New evidence from wavelets transform framework," MPRA Paper 52414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Campos, Nauro F & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)," IZA Discussion Papers 3752, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.