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Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)

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Author Info
Campos, Nauro F
Karanasos, Menelaos
Tan, Bin

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of financial development and political instability on economic growth in a power-ARCH framework with data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. Our findings suggest that (i) informal or unanticipated political instability (e.g., guerrilla warfare) has a direct negative impact on growth; (ii) formal or anticipated instability (e.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the long-run; and (v) the impact of financial development on economic growth is negative in the short- but positive in the long-run.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7004.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7004

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Related research
Keywords: economic growth; financial development; political instability; power-ARCH; volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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  6. Sergio L. Schmukler & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2003. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 03/34, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Nauro Campos & Menelaos Karanasos, 2007. "Growth, Volatility & Political Instability: Non Linear Time Series Evidence for Argentina 1896-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp891, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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