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Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering

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Author Info
Holland, A Steven
Abstract

For the postwar United States, increases in the rate of inflation tend to precede increases in the level of inflation uncertainty. The finding suggests that higher inflation uncertainty is part of the welfare cost of inflation. Possible explanations are (1) a high rate of inflation increases uncertainty about future monetary policy and (2) there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.

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File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2879%28199508%2927%3A3%3C827%3AIAUTFT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4&origin=bc
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 27 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 827-37
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:27:y:1995:i:3:p:827-37

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  1. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Are they related?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Modeling Volatility Spillovers between the Variabilities of US Inflation and Output: the UECCC GARCH Model," Working Papers 0475, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0609, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bill RUSSELL & Jonathan EVANS & Bruce PRESTON, 2002. "The Impact of Inflation and Uncertainty on the Optimum Markup Set by Firms," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/02, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries," Discussion Paper Series 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Menelaos Karanasosa & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0018, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tabakis, Nikolaos, 2001. "A Multivariate Model for the Relationship Between Agricultural Prices and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence Using Greek Data," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), January. [Downloadable!]
  9. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jinquan Liu & Tingguo Zheng & Jianli Sui, 2008. "Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 240-254, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2004. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Working Papers 2004-06, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  13. Donal Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and Markov regime switching heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 125, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  14. Shaun K. Roache & Alexander P. Attie, 2009. "Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors," IMF Working Papers 09/90, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2007. "Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist? Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability," Working papers 2007-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009. [Downloadable!]
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