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Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering

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Author Info
Holland, A Steven
Abstract

For the postwar United States, increases in the rate of inflation tend to precede increases in the level of inflation uncertainty. The finding suggests that higher inflation uncertainty is part of the welfare cost of inflation. Possible explanations are (1) a high rate of inflation increases uncertainty about future monetary policy and (2) there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 27 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 827-37
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:27:y:1995:i:3:p:827-37

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  1. Menelaos Karanasosa & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0018, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2004. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Working Papers 2004-06, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  3. K C Neanidis & C S Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 71, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Are they related?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Donal Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and Markov regime switching heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 125, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2007. "Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability: Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist?," Working papers 2007-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 9(4), pages 1147-1147. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bill RUSSELL & Jonathan EVANS & Bruce PRESTON, 2002. "The Impact of Inflation and Uncertainty on the Optimum Markup Set by Firms," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/02, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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