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The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts

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  • Davis, George K
  • Kanago, Bryce E

Abstract

There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-country relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors. Our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast-error from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inflation forecasts. Most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation. The greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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  • Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:38:y:2000:i:1:p:58-72
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