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The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts

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  • Davis, George K
  • Kanago, Bryce E

Abstract

There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-country relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors. Our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast-error from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inflation forecasts. Most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation. The greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 38 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 58-72

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:38:y:2000:i:1:p:58-72

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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  11. Gale, William A, 1981. "Temporal Variability of United States Consumer Price Index," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(3), pages 273-97, August.
  12. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1997. "Contract Duration, Inflation Uncertainty, and the Welfare Effects of Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 237-251, April.
  13. Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-84, May.
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