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The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts

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Author Info
Davis, George K
Kanago, Bryce E

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Abstract

There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-country relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors. Our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast-error from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inflation forecasts. Most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation. The greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 38 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 58-72
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:38:y:2000:i:1:p:58-72

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  1. Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, . "Testing for Rate-Dependence and Asymmetry in Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 Economies," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0306, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Guglielmo maria Coporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, . "The EURO and Inflation Uncertainty In The EMU," Working Papers 2005_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro And Inflation Uncertainty In The European Monetary Union," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Donal Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and Markov regime switching heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 125, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2006. "UK Inflation Persistence: Policy or Nature?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2007. "Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability: Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist?," Working papers 2007-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, . "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
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