Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation
AbstractIn this paper we propose a model for monthly inflation with stochastic trend, seasonal and transitory components with QGARCH disturbances. This model distinguishes whether the long-run or short-run components are heteroscedastic. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with these components may increase with the level of inflation as postulated by Friedman. We propose to use the differences between the autocorrelations of squares and the squared autocorrelations of the auxiliary residuals to identify heteroscedastic components. We show that conditional heteroscedasticity truly present in the data can be rejected when looking at the correlations of standardized residuals while the autocorrelations of auxiliary residuals have more power to detect conditional heteroscedasticity. Furthermore, the proposed statistics can help to decide which component is heteroscedastic. Their finite sample performance is compared with that of a Lagrange Multiplier test by means of Monte Carlo experiments. Finally, we use auxiliary residuals to detect conditional heteroscedasticity in monthly inflation series of eight OECD countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0812.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Leverage effect; QGARCH; seasonality; structural time series models; unobserved component;
Other versions of this item:
- Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-06-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-06-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2008-06-27 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-06-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2008-06-27 (Operations Research)
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