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Causality Between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

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  • Husain, Fazal
  • Mahmood, Tariq

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to re-examine the causal relationship between money and prices in Pakistan using recent data and employing cointegration and error correction models. Two measures of prices (CPI and WPI) and three measures of money stocks (M0, M1, and M2) were taken for the period July 1981 to June 1998. The analysis indicates a long run relationship between prices and M2 definition of money. The other definitions of money do not seem to be related with prices. The analysis further suggests a unidirectional causality running from money to prices and thus supporting the monetarists’s claim regarding the role of money. The results, however, are different from the findings of earlier studies in Pakistan which generally report bidirectionl causality between prices and money.

Suggested Citation

  • Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1998. "Causality Between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 5021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Bijan B. Aghevli & Mohsin S. Khan, 1978. "Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries (Déficits publics et processus inflationniste dans les pays en développement) (Los déficit públicos y el proceso inflaciona," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 383-416, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
    2. Adeela Rustam & Ying Wang, "undated". "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transformation In Pakistan: Exploring Monetary Neutrality Proposition," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 201940, Reviewsep.
    3. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nadia Saleem, 2008. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 99-128, Jul-Dec.
    5. Asma Awan & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad & Altaf Hussain & Muhammad Yousuf Khan Marri, 2021. "Prices, Money Supply and Output Nexus in Pakistan – A Macro Econometric Model," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 38-77, September.
    6. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.
    7. Sadia Tahir, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 319-342.
    8. Hussain, Karrar, 2009. "Causal Ordering Between Inflation and Productivity of Labor and Capital: An Empirical Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16486, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money; Prices; Pakistan; Causality; Long Run Relation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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