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Is The Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid For Canada?

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  • Awokuse, Titus O.

Abstract

Empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re-examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Application of recent developments in time series modeling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long-run steady state exists among the model's six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics in its series Staff Papers with number 15823.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:udelsp:15823

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Keywords: International Development; International Relations/Trade; F43; C32;

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Cited by:
  1. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2010. "Investigating the Relationship between Health and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of 5 Asian Countries," Economics Series 2010_08, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  2. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
  3. Awokuse, Titus O. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 184-190, January.
  4. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 849-858.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:7:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export-Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328.
  7. De la Cruz Gallegos, Jose Luis & Ivanova Boncheva, Antonina & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2008. "Competition between Latin America and China for US direct investment," MPRA Paper 8950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Manufacturing Exports, Mining Exports and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Chile (1960 - 2001)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 497, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324.
  10. Florencia Médici, 2011. "A Cointegration Analysis on the Principle of Effective Demand in Argentina (1980-2007)," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(61-62), pages 103-137, January -.
  11. Jaime Andrés Collazos & Pedro Luis Rosero, 2010. "¿Posee el Valle del Cauca una economía transformadora de importaciones orientadas a la Exportación?," DOCUMENTOS DE POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS 006880, UNIVERSIDAD ICESI.
  12. World Bank, 2009. "Strengthening Bolivian Competitiveness : Export Diversification and Inclusive Growth," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2656, April.
  13. Komain Jiranyakul, 2010. "Recent evidence of the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for Thailand," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2151-2159.
  14. Acaravici, Ali, 2010. "Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 140-154, July.
  15. Songül KAKÝLLÝ ACARAVCI & Ahmet Ertuðrul ÇALIM, 2013. "Turkish Banking Sector’s Profitability Factors," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-41.
  16. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Exactly what is the link between export and growth in Taiwan? new evidence from the Granger causality test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-10.

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