Vector Autoregression and Causality
AbstractThis paper develops a complete limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregression (VAR's) and Johansen-type error correction models (ECM's) allowing for the presence of stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work by Sims, Stock and Watson (1990) on trivariate VAR systems is extended to the general case, thereby formally characterizing the circumstances when these Wald tests are asymptotically valid as chi-square criteria. Our results for inference from unrestricted levels VAR are not encouraging.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 977.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: May 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometrica (November 1993), 61(6): 1367-1393
Note: CFP 858.
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Other versions of this item:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
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