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Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? The Canadian Case

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  • Irene Henriques
  • Perry Sadorsky
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    Abstract

    In this paper, the authors investigate the export-led growth hypothesis for Canada by constructing a vector autoregression in order to test for Granger causality between the following variables: real Canadian exports, real Canadian GDP, and real Canadian terms of trade. Two principal results emerge from the authors' research. First, real Canadian exports, real Canadian terms of trade, and real Canadian GDP are cointegrated. This implies that there exists a long-run steady state among these three variables. Second, the authors find evidence that a one-way Granger causal relationship exists in Canada whereby changes in GDP precede changes in exports.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 29 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 540-55

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    Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:29:y:1996:i:3:p:540-55

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Mohammed Ibrahim El-Sakka & Naief Hamad Al-Mutairi, 2000. "Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 153-169.
    2. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    3. C. Wernerheim & M. Waples, 2013. "Demand patterns and Canada’s trade in services," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-181, June.
    4. Saten Kumar, 2011. "Estimating export demand equations in selected Asian countriess," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-16, February.
    5. Maryam Asghari, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve and Growth Source in Iran," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(5), pages 609-623, December.
    6. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2010. "The Trade–Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004," MPRA Paper 26344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. V N Balasubramanyam & X Fu, 2002. "Township and village enterprises in China," Working Papers 539923, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    9. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 1999. "Exporting and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 7135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 353-371, December.
    11. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    12. Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 603-617.
    13. Khalafalla, Khalid Yousif & Webb, Alan J., 2000. "Exports And Economic Growth Under Structural Change: A Co-Integration Analysis Of Evidence From Malaysia," Working Papers 14595, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    14. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Modelo de Crescimento Baseado nas Exportações: Evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México, em uma perspectiva Não Linear," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807170923500, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Doyle Eleanor, 2001. "Export-Output Causality and the Role of Exports in Irish Growth: 1950-1997," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 31-54.
    16. Abdullahi Ahmed & Enjiang Cheng & George Messinis, 2011. "The role of exports, FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3719-3731.
    17. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    18. Musleh-Ud Din, 2004. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 105-124.

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