Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()

  • Zeynel Ozdemir

    ()

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to examine the export–output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1–2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration–cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan’s high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-012-0562-8
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 639-660

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:2:p:639-660

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

Related research

Keywords: Export-led growth; Output-driven export; Bootstrap; Time-Varying Causality; F43; O10; C32;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  3. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  4. Ali F. Darrat, 1986. "Trade and Development: The Asian Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 695-699, Fall.
  5. Anne O. Krueger, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," NBER Working Papers 0466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
  7. Mantalos, Panagiotis & Shukur, Ghazi, 1998. "Size and Power of the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test. A Bootstrap Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 249-55, May.
  8. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-88, November.
  9. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
  11. Lancaster, Kelvin, 1980. "Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-175, May.
  12. Greenaway, David & Sapsford, David, 1994. "Exports, growth, and liberalization: An evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 165-186, April.
  13. Helpman, Elhanan & Grossman, Gene M., 1989. "Product Development and International Trade," Scholarly Articles 3445094, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
  15. Ghazi Shukur & Panagiotis Mantalos, 2000. "A simple investigation of the Granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 1021-1031.
  16. Ahmad, Jaleel & Kwan, Andy C. C., 1991. "Causality between exports and economic growth : Empirical evidence from Africa," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 243-248, November.
  17. Eleanor Doyle, 1998. "Export-output causality: The Irish case 1953–93," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 147-161, June.
  18. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
  20. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  21. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
  22. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  23. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
  24. Baldwin, Richard E. & Forslid, Rikard, 2000. "Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: A q-theory approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 497-517, April.
  25. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 353-371, December.
  26. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
  27. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  28. Afxentiou, Panayiotis C & Serletis, Apostolos, 1991. "Exports and GNP Causality in the Industrial Countries: 1950-1985," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 167-79.
  29. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
  30. Awokuse, Titus O. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 184-190, January.
  31. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  32. Horowitz, Joel L., 1994. "Bootstrap-based critical values for the information matrix test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 395-411, April.
  33. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Scholarly Articles 3445092, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  34. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  35. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 51-72, October.
  36. Grabowski, Richard & Sharma, Subhash C. & Dhakal, Dharmendra, 1990. "Exports and Japanese economic development," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 127-132, February.
  37. Mantalos Panagiotis, 2000. "A Graphical Investigation of the Size and Power of the Granger-Causality Tests in Integrated-Cointegrated VAR Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, April.
  38. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 849-858.
  39. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  40. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  41. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
  42. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
  43. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-33, January.
  44. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
  45. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  46. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  47. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  48. Singer, Hans W. & Gray, Patricia, 1988. "Trade policy and growth of developing countries: some new data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-403, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Structural Instability: A Case Study of South Africa," Working Papers 201344, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
  3. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Causality between Exports and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Tests," Working Papers 201339, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working Papers 201345, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:2:p:639-660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.