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Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2

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Author Info
Judith A. Giles ()
Cara L. Williams
Abstract

This paper continues the investigation of Giles and Williams (2000) on export-led growth (ELG). In the first part, we surveyed the empirical export-led growth literature; it was evident that Granger noncausality tests are commonly applied as a test for ELG. In this paper, we explore the sensitivity of the test for exclusions restrictions often used as the Granger noncauality test for ELG by reconsidering two applications: Oxley’s (1993) study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky’s (1996) analysis for Canada. We focus on robustness to the method adopted to deal with nonstationarity, including the choice of deterministic trend degree. We show that different noncausality outcomes are easy to obtain, and consequently we recommend that readers interpret the empirical ELG literature with care. Our analysis also highlights the importance of examining the robustness of Granger noncauality test results to avoid spurious outcomes in applications.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0002.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0002

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-8540
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Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Related research
Keywords: economic growth causality time series models robustness misspecification model dimension cointegration.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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