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The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis

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Author Info
Aamer S. Abu-Qarn
Suleiman Abu-Bader

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Abstract

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is examined for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, the results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When only manufactured exports are examined, no support is found for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 15 (August)
Pages: 1685-1695
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1685-1695

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2003. "Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria," Working Papers 163, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Riezman, R.G. & Summers, P.M. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 92-27, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
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  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 206, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sheila Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, 2006. "What a difference a source makes! An analysis of export data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 35-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Herzer, Dierk & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 20, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2007. "Manufacturing exports, mining exports and growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Chile (1960--2001)," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 153-167, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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