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The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis

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  • Aamer Abu-Qarn
  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

Abstract

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is examined for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, the results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When only manufactured exports are examined, no support is found for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Pages: 1685-1695

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1685-1695

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 739-749, September.
  2. Dierk Herzer & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2004. "Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 103, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Dizaji, S.F., 2012. "Exports, government size and economic growth (Evidence from Iran as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 535, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  4. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Manufacturing exports, mining exports and growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Chile (1960-2001)," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 104, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Husein, J, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis In The Mena Region: A Multivariate Cointegration, Causality And Stability Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
  6. Sheila Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, 2006. "What a difference a source makes! An analysis of export data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 35-39.
  7. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2012. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," FIW Working Paper series 084, FIW.
  8. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," MPRA Paper 1113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Saten Kumar, 2011. "Estimating export demand equations in selected Asian countriess," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-16, February.
  10. Helmi Hamdi & Rashid Sbia & Hakimi Abdelaziz & Wafa Khlaifia hakimi, 2013. "Multivariate Granger causality between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1193-1203.
  11. Alimi, Santos R. & Muse, Bernard O., 2012. "Export - led growth or growth – driven exports? Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Harb, Nasri, 2008. "Oil Exports, Non Oil GDP and Investment in the GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 15576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2011. "Manufactured Exports And Economic Growth In Egypt: Cointegration And Causality Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
  14. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Soares, Cristiane, 2011. "‘Export Led Growth’ x ‘Growth Led Exports’: What Matters for the Brazilian Growth Experience after Trade Liberalization?," MPRA Paper 30562, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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