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The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

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Author Info
Aamer Abu-Qarn () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)
Suleiman Abu-Bader () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

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Abstract

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, our results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When we examine only manufactured exports, we find no support for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.

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File URL: http://www.econ.bgu.ac.il/papers/134.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2001
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 134.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Applied Economics, August 2004, pages 1685 – 1695
Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:134

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Related research
Keywords: ELG; MENA; Middle East and North Africa; economic growth; export promotion; Granger causality; cointegration; error correction model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  2. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2003. "Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria," Working Papers 163, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Riezman, R.G. & Summers, P.M. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 92-27, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
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  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 206, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Herzer, Dierk & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 20, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sheila Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, 2006. "What a difference a source makes! An analysis of export data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 35-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2007. "Manufacturing exports, mining exports and growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Chile (1960--2001)," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 153-167, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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