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The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

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Author Info
Abu-Qarn, Aamer
Abu-Bader, Suleiman

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Abstract

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, our results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When we examine only manufactured exports, we find no support for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1116/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1116.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Applied Economics 15.36(2004): pp. 1685-1695
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1116

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Related research
Keywords: ELG; MENA; Middle East and North Africa; economic growth; export promotion; Granger causality; cointegration; error correction model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  2. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2003. "Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria," Working Papers 163, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Riezman, R.G. & Summers, P.M. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 92-27, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
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  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Export growth and Canadian economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 133-145, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michael Hutchison & Nirvikar Singh, 1992. "Exports, Non-Exports And Externalities: A Granger Causality Approach," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 79-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  13. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Xu, Zhenhui, 1996. "On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 172-84, June.
  16. Biswal, Bagala & Dhawan, Urvashi, 1998. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 699-701, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Sharma, Subhash C & Dhakal, Dharmendra, 1994. "Causal Analyses between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(12), pages 1145-57, December.
  19. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harb, Nasri, 2008. "Oil Exports, Non Oil GDP and Investment in the GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 15576, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sheila Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, 2006. "What a difference a source makes! An analysis of export data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 35-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Herzer, Dierk & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 20, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2007. "Manufacturing exports, mining exports and growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Chile (1960--2001)," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 153-167, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 206, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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