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On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation

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Author Info
Xu, Zhenhui

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Abstract

Although conventional wisdom suggests that export growth contributes positively to economic growth, empirical studies on the causal links between exports and output have provided little support for the exported growth hypothesis. The paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: This paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: the characteristics of the data, and the choice of optimal lags. The results of this study show that in a sample of 32 economies, the export-led hypothesis is supported by 17 economies and is strongly supported by 9 economies. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 172-84
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:4:y:1996:i:2:p:172-84

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576

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  1. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 353-371, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2001. "The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis," Working Papers 134, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581. [Downloadable!]
  5. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  7. Sangho KIM & Hyunjoon LIM & Donghyun PARK, 2007. "The Effect of Imports and Exports on Total Factor Productivity in Korea," Discussion papers 07022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  8. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2001. "On Non-Linearities Between Exports Of Manufactures And Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 279-311, November. [Downloadable!]
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