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On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation

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  • Xu, Zhenhui

Abstract

Although conventional wisdom suggests that export growth contributes positively to economic growth, empirical studies on the causal links between exports and output have provided little support for the exported growth hypothesis. The paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: This paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: the characteristics of the data, and the choice of optimal lags. The results of this study show that in a sample of 32 economies, the export-led hypothesis is supported by 17 economies and is strongly supported by 9 economies. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 172-84

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:4:y:1996:i:2:p:172-84

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Cited by:
  1. Shaheen, Safana & Awan, Masood Sarwar & Waqas, Muhammad & Aslam, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 32876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Lukasz Lach & Henryk Gurgul, 2010. "International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 3, pages 5-29.
  3. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2001. "On Non-Linearities Between Exports Of Manufactures And Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 279-311, November.
  4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 229-236, January.
  5. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
  6. Reppas, Panayiotis A. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2005. "The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 929-940, November.
  7. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
  8. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64.
  9. Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 739-749, September.
  10. Yamada, Hiroshi, 1998. "A note on the causality between export and productivity:: an empirical re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 111-114, October.
  11. Helmi Hamdi, 2013. "Testing export-led growth in Tunisia and Morocco: New evidence using the Toda and Yamamoto procedure," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 677-686.
  12. Qazi Hye, 2012. "Long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1137-1149, June.
  13. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 353-371, December.
  14. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2001. "The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis," Working Papers, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics 134, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  15. Othman, Redzuan & Salleh, Norlida Hanim Mohd, 2008. "Hubungan Pembangunan Industri Pelancongan Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Beberapa Negara Utama ASEAN
    [Relationship Between Tourism Industry Development and Economic Growth in Major ASEAN Countries]
    ," MPRA Paper 22457, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Feb 2010.
  16. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
  17. Sangho KIM & Hyunjoon LIM & Donghyun PARK, 2007. "The Effect of Imports and Exports on Total Factor Productivity in Korea," Discussion papers, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) 07022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  18. Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica & Petreski, Marjan, 2010. "Western Balkan’s trade with the EU and CEFTA-2006: Evidence from Macedonian data," MPRA Paper 41942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
  20. Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2011. "Manufactured Exports And Economic Growth In Egypt: Cointegration And Causality Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).

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