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A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

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  • Dreger, Christian
  • Herzer, Dierk

Abstract

This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the longrun effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on nonexport GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 305.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:305

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Keywords: Export-led growth; Developing countries; Panel cointegration;

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2012. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," FIW Working Paper series 084, FIW.
  2. Paula Gracinda Santos & Ana Paula Ribeiro & Vitor Manuel Carvalho, 2013. "Export-led growth in Europe: Where and what to export?," FEP Working Papers 479, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  3. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2012. "The Impact of Trade Integration with the EU on Porductivity in a Post-Transition Economy. The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors," Working Papers 1202, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
  4. Mariam Camarero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmenn D. & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 226, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2013. "On the Relevance of Exports for Regional Output Growth in China," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1264, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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