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Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality

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  • Judith A. Giles

    ()

  • Sadaf Mirza

Abstract

We compare testing strategies for Granger noncausality in vector autoregressions (VARs) that may or may not have unit roots and cointegration. Sequential testing methods are examined; these test for cointegration and use either a differenced VAR or a vector error correction model (VECM), in which to undertake the main noncausality test. Basically, the pretesting strategies attempt to verify the validity of appropriate standard limit theory. These methods are contrasted with an augmented lag approach that ensures the limiting Chi Square null distribution irrespective of the data’s nonstationarity characteristics. Our simulations involve bivariate and trivariate VARs in which we allow for the lag order to be selected by general to specific testing as well as by model selection criteria. We find that the current practice of pretesting for cointegration can result in severe over-rejections of the noncausal null while overfitting suffers less size distortion with often little loss in power.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 9914.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 14 Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9914

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Keywords: cointegration; error correction model; vector autoregressive model; lag length selection; model selection methods; sequential testing; information criteria;

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References

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  2. Arifa, Ali & Ghali, Khalifa H. & Limam, Imed, 2002. "Investigating Stock Price Dynamics in an Oil-Dependent Economy: The Case of Kuwait," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 141-158, June Spec.
  3. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
  4. Fugarolas, Guadalupe & Mañalich, Isis & Matesanz, David, 2007. "Are Exports Causing Growth? Evidence On International Trade Expansion In Cuba, 1960-2004," MPRA Paper 6323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  6. Md. Shahadath Hossain & A.B.M. Munibur Rahman & Md. Salah Uddin Rajib, 2013. "Dynamics of Mutual Funds in Relation to Stock Market: A Vector Autoregressive Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 191-201.
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  8. Jean-Yves Pitarakis & George Tridimas, 2003. "Joint Dynamics of Legal and Economic Integration in the European Union," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368, November.
  9. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
  10. László Kónya & Jai Pal Singh, 2007. "Causality between Indian Exports, Imports, and Agricultural, Manufacturing GDP," Working Papers 2007.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
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  13. Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94.
  14. Philip Kofi Adom, 2011. "Electricity Consumption-Economic Growth Nexus: The Ghanaian Case," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 18-31, June.
  15. Tronzano, Marco, 2010. "Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 63(2), pages 217-244.
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