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Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality

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Author Info
Judith A. Giles ()
Sadaf Mirza
Abstract

We compare testing strategies for Granger noncausality in vector autoregressions (VARs) that may or may not have unit roots and cointegration. Sequential testing methods are examined; these test for cointegration and use either a differenced VAR or a vector error correction model (VECM), in which to undertake the main noncausality test. Basically, the pretesting strategies attempt to verify the validity of appropriate standard limit theory. These methods are contrasted with an augmented lag approach that ensures the limiting Chi Square null distribution irrespective of the data’s nonstationarity characteristics. Our simulations involve bivariate and trivariate VARs in which we allow for the lag order to be selected by general to specific testing as well as by model selection criteria. We find that the current practice of pretesting for cointegration can result in severe over-rejections of the noncausal null while overfitting suffers less size distortion with often little loss in power.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 9914.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 14 Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9914

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Related research
Keywords: cointegration; error correction model; vector autoregressive model; lag length selection; model selection methods; sequential testing; information criteria;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94. [Downloadable!]
  2. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  3. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Arifa, Ali & Ghali, Khalifa H. & Limam, Imed, 2002. "Investigating Stock Price Dynamics in an Oil-Dependent Economy: The Case of Kuwait," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 141-158, June Spec. [Downloadable!]
  5. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean-Yves Pitarakis & George Tridimas, 2003. "Joint Dynamics of Legal and Economic Integration in the European Union," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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