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Applied Cointegration Analysis in the Mirror of Macroeconomic Theory

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Söderlind, Paul
Vredin, Anders

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Abstract

Applied cointegration analysis has much to gain from strong links with economic theory. For example, the current generation of equilibrium macroeconomic models have simple predictions for cointegrating vectors. These models also suggest that important information about the economic structure can be found in the short-run dynamics, which most cointegration studies disregard. Simulations of a stochastic business cycle model show that tests of cointegrating vectors, forecasts, and variance decompositions based on long-run assumptions can be sharpened by imposing even very simple economic restrictions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1120.

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Date of creation: Jan 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1120

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Related research
Keywords: Cointegration; Money Demand; Stochastic Growth Model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Cited by:
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  1. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  3. St-Amant, P. & Tessier, D., 1998. "A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," Working Papers 98-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cliff L.F. Attfield & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2003. "Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/555, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2008. "Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle," CEIS Research Paper 106, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 07 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ruxanda, Gheorghe & Botezatu, Andreea, 2008. "Spurious Regression And Cointegration. Numerical Example: Romania’S M2 Money Demand," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 51-62, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alain W. HECQ, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Latin America: A 2-step vs an Iterative Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 258, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Melisso Boschi, 2007. "Foreign capital in Latin America: A long-run structural Global VAR perspective," Economics Discussion Papers 647, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Shahidur Rahman, 2005. "An Alternative Estimation to Spurious Regression Model," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0507, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Fabrizio Iacone & Peter M Robinson, 2004. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Deterministic Trends," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2004/476, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ivanov, Ventzislav & Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  14. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520. [Downloadable!]
  15. Phillip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 0012, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1999. "A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 77, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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