This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Cliff L. F. Attfield
Jonathan R. W. Temple

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Standard macroeconomic models suggest that the ‘great ratios’ of consumptionto output and investment to output should be stable functions of structural parameters. We examine whether the ratios are stationary for the US and UK, allowing for structural breaks that could reflect timevarying parameters. We find stronger evidence for stationarity than previous work. We then use the long-run restrictions associated with the stationarity of the great ratios to extract measures of trend output from the joint behaviour of consumption, investment and output. This approach isattractive because it uses information from several series without requiring restrictive assumptions.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/cgbcr/dpcgbcr/dpcgbcr75.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 75.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:75

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/cgbcr/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Marianne Sensier).

Related research
Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Allan W. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  7. Soderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 1996. "Applied Cointegration Analysis in the Mirror of Macroeconomic Theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 363-81, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2003. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycle," Working Papers UWEC-2003-36, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1237-1278, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    Other versions:
  11. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-22, August.
  12. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung & Tallman, Ellis W., 2003. "Permanent income and transitory variation in investment and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael Palumbo & Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "On the relationships between real consumption, income and wealth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. D'Adda, Carlo & Scorcu, Antonello E., 2003. "On the time stability of the output-capital ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1175-1189, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Whelan, Karl, 2002. "A Guide to U.S. Chain Aggregated NIPA Data," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 217-33, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Apostolos Serletis, 1996. "Government Activities and Tests of the Long-Run Implications of the Neoclassical Growth Model for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 635-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542. [Downloadable!]
  22. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. DeLoach, Stephen B. & Rasche, Robert H., 1998. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a large open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 565-596, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Observational equivalence and a stochastic cointegration test of the neoclassical and Romer's increasing returns models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  28. Serletis, Apostolos, 1994. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 329-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0692, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  30. Benati, Luca, 2006. "Drift and Breaks in Labour Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Mills, Terence C, 2001. "Great Ratios and Common Cycles: Do They Exist for the UK?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 35-51, January.
  33. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  34. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Bentolila, Samuel & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "Explaining Movements in the Labour Share," CEPR Discussion Papers 1958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. Whelan, Karl, 2003. " A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 627-56, August.
    Other versions:
  37. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H, 2000. "Some Evidence on the Continuity of the Growth Process among the G-7 Countries," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 320-30, April.
    Other versions:
  38. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Inflation and the great ratios: Long term evidence from the U.S," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  40. Cook, Steven, 2005. "The stationarity of consumption-income ratios: Evidence from minimum LM unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 55-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  41. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    Other versions:
  42. Fama, Eugene F., 1992. "Transitory variation in investment and output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 467-480, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Montserrat, 1999. "Are the Consumption/Output and Investment/Output Ratios Stationary? An International Analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 687-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  44. Daniel, Betty C., 1997. "International interdependence of national growth rates: A structural trends anakysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 73-96, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  45. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(1), pages 19-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  46. Serletis, Apostolos & Krichel, Thomas, 1995. "International Evidence on the Long-Run Implications of the Neoclassical Growth Model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 205-10, February.
  47. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was sponsored from 1997 to 2002 by the Université du Québec à Montréal.

This page was last updated on 2008-6-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.