Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Peter N. Ireland

    () (Boston College)

  • Scott Schuh

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

Abstract

A two-sector real business cycle model, estimated with postwar U.S. data, identifies shocks to the levels and growth rates of total factor productivity in distinct consumption- and investment-goods-producing technologies. This model attributes most of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s to the consumption-goods sector; it suggests that a slowdown in the investment-goods sector occurred later and was much less persistent. Against this broader backdrop, the model interprets the more recent episode of robust investment and investment-specific technological change during the 1990s largely as a catch-up in levels that is unlikely to persist or be repeated anytime soon.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp642.pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 642.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:642

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
Phone: 617-552-3670
Fax: +1-617-552-2308
Email:
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: productivity; real business cycle;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Richard Rogerson, 2010. "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 250, David K. Levine.
  2. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
  3. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
  4. Lindé, Jesper, 2005. "The Effects of Permanent Technology Shocks on Labour Productivity and Hours in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 4827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
  6. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
  7. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
  8. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  9. Jonas Fisher, 2004. "Technology Shocks Matter," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 14, Econometric Society.
  10. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1998. "The Role of Investment-Specific Technological Change in the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 449, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Fernald, John, 2006. "Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1237-1278, December.
  13. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  14. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, Jose David, 2002. "Markups, Gaps and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "A Century of Labor-Leisure Distortions," NBER Working Papers 8774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Gregory W. Huffman & Mark A. Wynne, 1995. "The role of intratemporal adjustment costs in a multi-sector economy," Working Papers 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  17. Yongsung Chang & Taeyoung Doh & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Non-stationary Hours in a DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1357-1373, 09.
  18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  19. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2005. "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1593, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Gali, J., 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," Working Papers 96-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  21. Whelan, Karl, 2002. "A Guide to U.S. Chain Aggregated NIPA Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 217-33, June.
  22. Michael R. Pakko, 2005. "Changing Technology Trends, Transition Dynamics, and Growth Accounting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 0(1), pages 12.
  23. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth, and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 11130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Michael R. Pakko, 2001. "What happens when the technology growth trend changes?: transition dynamics, capital growth and the "new economy"," Working Papers 2001-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What happens after a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 768, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-52, May.
  27. Yongsung Chang & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Labor-Supply Shifts and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0204005, EconWPA.
  28. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  29. Bart Hobijn, 2001. "Is equipment price deflation a statistical artifact?," Staff Reports 139, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  30. Whelan, Karl, 2003. " A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 627-56, August.
  31. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Scott, Andrew, 1996. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 1409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  36. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  37. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
  38. Marquis, Milton H. & Trehan, Bharat, 2008. "On using relative prices to measure capital-specific technological progress," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1390-1406, December.
  39. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  40. Robert E. Hall, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," NBER Working Papers 5933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Whelan, Karl, 2004. "New evidence on balanced growth, stochastic trends, and economic fluctuations," Open Access publications from University College Dublin urn:hdl:10197/218, University College Dublin.
  42. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  43. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  44. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  45. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  46. Luca Guerrieri & Dale Henderson, 2005. "Investment-Specific and Multifactor Productivity in Multi-Sector Open Economies:Data and Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 143, Society for Computational Economics.
  47. Parkin, Michael, 1988. "A method for determining whether parameters in aggregative models are structural," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 215-252, January.
  48. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2006. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1461-1481, September.
  49. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  50. Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-71, May.
  51. John M. Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 0(1), pages 3.
  52. Yongsung Chang & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Labor shifts and economic fluctuations," Working Paper 03-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  53. David N. DeJong & Beth F. Ingram & Charles H. Whiteman, 2000. "Keynesian impulses versus Solow residuals: identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 311-329.
  54. Taubman, Paul & Wilkinson, Maurice, 1970. "User Cost, Capital Utilization and Investment Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(2), pages 209-15, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2009. "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model," IEW - Working Papers 408, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John D., 2012. "News and Financial Intermediation in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations," Dynare Working Papers 12, CEPREMAP.
  3. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2011. "Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 32944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. repec:pra:mprapa:38985 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Malley, James & Woitek, Ulrich, 2011. "Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  6. Andrle, Michal, 2008. "The Role of Trends and Detrending in DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 13289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Federico di Pace, 2008. "Revisiting the Comovement Puzzle: the Input-Output Structure as an Additional Solution," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  8. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2010. "Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling US Boom in the 1990s," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 88-123, October.
  9. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2009. "Productivity shocks and aggregate cycles in an estimated endogenous growth model," IEW - Working Papers 416, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  10. Dave, Chetan & Dressler, Scott J., 2010. "Technology shocks, capital utilization and sticky prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2179-2191, October.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:642

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.