Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break
AbstractA test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. Our test is not a likelihood ratio test but the deterministic terms including the broken trends are removed first by a generalized least squares procedure. Then, a likelihood ratio-type test is applied to the adjusted series. The asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived and it is shown by a Monte Carlo experiment that the test has better small-sample properties in many cases than a corresponding Gaussian likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank. Moreover, response surface techniques can be used to easily obtain p-values of the test for any possible break date. Copyright 2007 The Authors
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis.
Volume (Year): 29 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
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Other versions of this item:
- Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/29, European University Institute.
- Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-067, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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