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The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles

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  • CHANG-JIN KIM
  • JEREMY M. PIGER
  • RICHARD STARTZ

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of post-war U.S. business cycles. We specify a time-series model for real GNP and consumption in which the two share a common stochastic trend and transitory component, and Markov-regime switching is used to model business cycle phases in these components. The timing of switches between business cycle phases is allowed to differ across the permanent and transitory components. We find strong evidence of a lead-lag relationship between the switches in the two components. Specifically, switches in the permanent component leads switches in the transitory component when entering recessions. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 187-204

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:1:p:187-204

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Zeynep Senyuz, 2011. "Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, 09.
  2. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition with Markov Switching," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Marcelle Chauvet, 2013. "Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy," Working Papers 2013-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.

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