Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations
AbstractThis paper develops an unobserved components model for U.S. real GDP that allows for both asymmetric transitory movements and correlation between the permanent and transitory innovations. The asymmetry is modeled using Markov-switching in the transitory component in the spirit of Kim and Nelson's (1999) version of Friedman's plucking model. The findings suggest that ignoring the correlation between permanent and transitory movements underestimates the role of permanent movements, whereas ignoring asymmetry in the transitory component underestimates the role of temporary movements in U.S. real GDP. These results imply that both permanent movements and asymmetric transitory shocks are important for explaining post-war output fluctuations in the U.S. and for explaining the recession that began in 2007 in particular.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
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- Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, 02.
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- Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
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