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How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth

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This paper uses consumption data to estimate the trend growth rate for the “new economy.'' The analysis starts with the assumption that a trend break in GDP should be accompanied by a trend break in consumption. But because consumption is forward looking and smoother than GDP, it should be easier to detect a trend break in the former. The forward looking nature of consumption allows us to incorporate the private expectations of U.S. households about the new economy. The relative smoothness makes it easier to separate changes in trend growth from ordinary cyclical movements. The evidence confirms that there has been an increase in trend growth over the last 5 years, but the increase seems rather modest. The new economy is likely to grow more rapidly than in the 1970s, but not as fast as in the 1950s or early 1960s.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University in its series Working Papers with number 2133301.

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Handle: RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133301

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  1. Evans, George W & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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Cited by:
  1. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Guse, Eran A., 2014. "Adaptive learning, endogenous uncertainty, and asymmetric dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 355-373.
  3. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
  4. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  7. Attfield, Clifford & Temple, Jonathan, 2004. "Measuring Trend Output: How Useful Are the Great Ratios?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. James A. Kahn & Robert Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Staff Reports 159, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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