The Slow Adjustment of Aggregate Consumption to Permanent Income
AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between aggregate consumption and permanent income using a new approach to the estimation of cointegrated systems that builds on Stock and Watson's common stochastic trends representation. The permanent and transitory movements in aggregate income and consumption are estimated directly using the Kalman filter and are allowed to be correlated. This approach avoids any implicit restriction that permanent income be as smooth as consumption. Instead, permanent income appears to be relatively volatile, with consumption adjusting toward it only slowly over time. These results provide a clear rejection of the standard version of the permanent income hypothesis and are suggestive of alternative theories of consumption behavior such as habit formation or precautionary savings. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (03)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010.
"Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
- Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- G. Everaert, 2007. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships between Observed Integrated Variables by Unobserved Component Methods," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/452, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Tara Sinclair & Sinchan Mitra, 2008.
"Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach,"
2008-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 396-422, June.
- Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, . "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009.
"Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation,"
2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Arabinda Basistha, 2009.
"Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
- Arabinda Basistha, 2006. "Hours per Capita and Productivity: Evidence from Correlated Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 06-02 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2012.
"Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components,"
IAB Discussion Paper
201228, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007.
"Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems,"
9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013.
"How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Riccardo Corradini, 2005.
"An Empirical Analysis of Permanent Income Hypothesis Applied to Italy using State Space Models with non zero correlation between trend and cycle,"
- Riccardo Corradini, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Permanent Income Hypothesis Applied to Italy using State Space Models with non zero correlation between trend and cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 28, Society for Computational Economics.
- KARGI, Bilal, 2014.
"Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sürekli Gelir Hipotezine İlişkin Kanıtlar: Zaman Serileri Analizi (2004-2012)
[Evidence for Turkey's Economy Permanent Income Hypothesis: Time Series Analysis (2004-2012)]," MPRA Paper 55696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.