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The Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model: A Reinterpretation and Supporting Evidence

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Author Info
Jim Malley
Hassan Molana

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Abstract

The consumption path associated with the life-cycle-optimising version of the permanent- income model is commonly agreed to be a random walk with drift. The persisting failure of the latter to conform to data could, however, raise questions about the suitability of the life- cycle-permanent-income framework within which the random walk model is developed. We propose an alternative interpretation of the permanent-income revision rule which implies consumption follows an ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift. We show that this path can also be derived as a solution to a life-cycle optimising problem with habit formation and precautionary saving motives. U.S. data for 1929-2001 strongly supports the model.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2002_17.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2002_17

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E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, 2006. "Further Evidence from Aggregate Data on the Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1025-1041, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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