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Non-Balanced Growth and Production Technology Estimation

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  • Miguel A León-Ledesma

    ()

  • Peter McAdam
  • Alpo Willman

Abstract

Capital-labor substitution and TFP estimates are essential features of many economic models. Such models typically embody a balanced growth path. This often leads researchers to estimate models imposing stringent prior choices on technical change. We demonstrate that estimation of the substitution elasticity and TFP growth can be substantially biased if technical progress is thereby mis-specified. We obtain analytical and simulation results in the context of a model consistent with balanced and near-balanced growth (i.e. departures from balanced growth but broadly stable factor shares). Given this evidence, a Constant Elasticity of Substitution production function system is then estimated for the US economy. Results show that the estimated substitution elasticity tends to be significantly lower using a factor-augmenting specification (well below one). We are also able to reject conventional neutrality forms in favor of general factor augmentation with a non-negligible capital-augmenting component. Our work thus provides insights into production and supply-side estimation in balanced-growth frameworks.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/1204.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1204.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1204

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Related research

Keywords: Balanced Growth; Technical Progress Neutrality; Factor Income share; Constant Elasticity of Substitution; Factor-Augmenting Technical Change;

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References

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  1. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
  2. Thursby, Jerry, 1980. "Alternative CES Estimation Techniques," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 295-99, May.
  3. Joon Y. Park, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1587, Econometric Society.
  4. Charles I. Jones, 2004. "The Shape of Production Function and the Direction of Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 10457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. F. M. Fisher & R. M. Solow & J. R. Kearl, 1974. "Aggregate Production Functions: Some CES xperiments," Working papers 136, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  8. León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2009. "Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change," Working Paper Series 1001, European Central Bank.
  9. Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2008. "The Calibration of CES Production Functions," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 08/606, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  10. Klump, Rainer & Preissler, Harald, 2000. " CES Production Functions and Economic Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 41-56, March.
  11. Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma & Mathan Satchi, 2011. "The Choice of CES Production Techniques and Balanced Growth," Studies in Economics 1113, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  12. Klump, Rainer & Saam, Marianne, 2008. "Calibration of normalised CES production functions in dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 256-259, May.
  13. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, 07.
  14. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
  15. Berndt, Ernst R, 1976. "Reconciling Alternative Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 59-68, February.
  16. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Labor- and Capital- Augmenting Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 7544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Jakub Growiec, 2008. "A new class of production functions and an argument against purely labor-augmenting technical change," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(4), pages 483-502.
  19. Growiec, Jakub, 2008. "Production functions and distributions of unit factor productivities: Uncovering the link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 87-90, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2011. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1111, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  2. Cantore, Cristiano & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2010. "Shocking stuff: technology, hours, and factor substitution," Working Paper Series 1278, European Central Bank.

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