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In dubio pro CES - Supply estimation with mis-specified technical change

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  • León-Ledesma, Miguel A.
  • McAdam, Peter
  • Willman, Alpo

Abstract

Capital-labor substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of growth and income distribution models. In the context of a Monte Carlo exercise embodying balanced and near balanced growth, we demonstrate that the estimation of the substitution elasticity can be substantially biased if the form of technical progress is misspecified. For some parameter values, when factor shares are relatively constant, there could be an inherent bias towards Cobb-Douglas. The implied estimates of TFP growth also yield substantially different results depending on the specification of technical progress. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution production function is then estimated within a “normalized” system approach for the US economy over 1960:1–2004:4. Results show that the estimated substitution elasticity tends to be significantly lower using a factor augmenting specification (well below one). We are able to reject Hicks-, Harrod- and Solow-neutral specifications in favor of general factor augmentation with a non-negligible capital-augmenting component. Finally, we draw some important lessons for production and supply-side estimation. JEL Classification: C15, C32, E23, O33, O51

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1175.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101175

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Related research

Keywords: Balanced Growth; Constant Elasticity of Substitution; Factor Income share; Factor-Augmenting Technical Change; Technical Progress Neutrality;

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References

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  1. Klump, Rainer & Saam, Marianne, 2006. "Calibration of normalised CES production functions in dynamic models," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-78, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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  7. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
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  13. Klump, Rainer & Preissler, Harald, 2000. " CES Production Functions and Economic Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 41-56, March.
  14. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, 07.
  15. Thursby, Jerry, 1980. "Alternative CES Estimation Techniques," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 295-99, May.
  16. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Willman, Alpo, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 0153, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2013. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," IMF Working Papers 13/17, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "Technology, Utilization and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0912, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  3. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2011. "The normalized CES production function: theory and empirics," Working Paper Series 1294, European Central Bank.
  4. Jakub Growiec, 2012. "The World Technology Frontier: What Can We Learn from the US States?-super-," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(6), pages 777-807, December.
  5. León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2011. "Aggregation, the skill premium, and the two-level production function," Working Paper Series 1400, European Central Bank.

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