We consider the bootstrap unit root tests based on finite order autoregressive integrated models driven by iid innovations, with or without deterministic time trends. A general methodology is developed to approximate asymptotic distributions for the models driven by integrated time series, and used to obtain asymptotic expansions for the Dickey-Fuller unit root tests. The second-order terms in their expansions are of stochastic orders O(p)(n-super- - 1/4) and O(p)(n-super- - 1/2), and involve functionals of Brownian motions and normal random variates. The asymptotic expansions for the bootstrap tests are also derived and compared with those of the Dickey-Fuller tests. We show in particular that the bootstrap offers asymptotic refinements for the Dickey-Fuller tests, i.e., it corrects their second-order errors. More precisely, it is shown that the critical values obtained by the bootstrap resampling are correct up to the second-order terms, and the errors in rejection probabilities are of order o(n-super- - 1/2) if the tests are based upon the bootstrap critical values. Through simulations, we investigate how effective is the bootstrap correction in small samples. Copyright The Econometric Society 2003.
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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.
Volume (Year): 71 (2003) Issue (Month): 6 (November) Pages: 1845-1895 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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