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Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income

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Author Info
Paap, Richard
van Dijk, Herman K

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Abstract

Stylized facts show that average growth rates of U.S. per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Because a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables to examine the permanent income hypothesis may not be valid. To model the changing growth rates in both series, we introduce a multivariate Markov trend model that accounts for different growth rates in consumption and income during expansions and recessions and across variables within both regimes. The deviations from the multivariate Markov trend are modeled by a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Bayes estimates of this model are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The empirical results suggest the existence of a cointegration relation between U.S. per capita disposable income and consumption, after correction for a multivariate Markov trend. This result is also obtained when per capita investment is added to the VAR.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 547-63
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:4:p:547-63

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Peel, D. A., 1992. "Some analysis of the long-run time series properties of consumption and income in the U.K," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-178, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998. "Threshold Nonlinearities in Output: Some International Evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 323-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Zivot, E., 1993. "A Bayesian Analysis of the Unit Root Hypothesis Within an Unobserved Components Model," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 93-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
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  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:552-78 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Zivot, Eric, 1994. "A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 552-578, August. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2006. "Expected Money Growth, Markov Trends and the Instability of Money Demand in the Euro Area," Working Papers 131, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  3. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronization," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Luc Bauwens & Charles S. Bos & Herman K. van Dijk, 1999. "Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-082/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  7. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. H.K. Van Dijk, 2002. "On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model," Econometric Institute Report 263, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & Johan F. Kaashoek, 2004. "Functional Approximations to Likelihoods/Posterior Densities: A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Sampling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 74, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006. "Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 191-212. [Downloadable!]
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