This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Paap, Richard
van Dijk, Herman K
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Stylized facts show that average growth rates of U.S. per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Because a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables to examine the permanent income hypothesis may not be valid. To model the changing growth rates in both series, we introduce a multivariate Markov trend model that accounts for different growth rates in consumption and income during expansions and recessions and across variables within both regimes. The deviations from the multivariate Markov trend are modeled by a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Bayes estimates of this model are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The empirical results suggest the existence of a cointegration relation between U.S. per capita disposable income and consumption, after correction for a multivariate Markov trend. This result is also obtained when per capita investment is added to the VAR.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download . To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics .
Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 547-63
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:4:p:547-63Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
Order Information: Web: http://www.amstat.org/publications/index.html
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Keywords: Other versions of this item:
Paper Richard Paap & Herman K. van Dijk, 1999.
"Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to US Consumption and Income ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
99-024/4, Tinbergen Institute.
[Downloadable!] Paap, R. & Dijk, H.K. van, 2002.
"Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to US consumption and income ,"
Econometric Institute Report
EI 2002-42 Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk, 1999.
"Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series - an application to US consumption and income ,"
Econometric Institute Report
111, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Campbell, John Y, 1987.
"Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Peel, D. A., 1992.
"Some analysis of the long-run time series properties of consumption and income in the U.K ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-178, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hall, Robert E, 1978.
"Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994.
"Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection ,"
Econometric Theory ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998.
"Threshold Nonlinearities in Output: Some International Evidence ,"
Applied Economics ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 323-33, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993.
"Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
Hamilton, James D, 1989.
"A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Zivot, E., 1993.
"A Bayesian Analysis of the Unit Root Hypothesis Within an Unobserved Components Model ,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
93-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997.
"Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
[Downloadable!]
Goodwin, Thomas H, 1993.
"Business-Cycle Analysis with a Markov-Switching Model ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 331-39, July.
Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2002.
"Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 223-249, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:552-78 is not listed on IDEAS
Zivot, Eric, 1994.
"A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model ,"
Econometric Theory ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 552-578, August.
[Downloadable!]
Potter, Simon M, 1995.
"A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2006.
"Expected Money Growth, Markov Trends and the Instability of Money Demand in the Euro Area ,"
Working Papers
131, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
[Downloadable!]
Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006.
"Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK ,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
[Downloadable!]
Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004.
"Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle ,"
Working Papers
2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
[Downloadable!]
Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004.
"How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronization ,"
Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series
wp2004n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Luc Bauwens & Charles S. Bos & Herman K. van Dijk, 1999.
"Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
99-082/4, Tinbergen Institute.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
BAUWENS, Luc & BOS, Charles S. & VAN DIJK, Herman K., 1999.
"Adaptive polar sampling with an application to a Bayes measure of value-at-risk ,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1999057, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
[Downloadable!] Bauwens, L. & Bos, C.S. & Dijk, H.K. van, 1999.
"Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk ,"
Econometric Institute Report
TI 99-082/4 Revision_Date, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] K. Van Dijk & Luc Bauwens & Charles Bos, 2000.
"Adaptive Polar Sampling With An Application To A Bayes Measure Of Value-At-Risk ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2000
145, Society for Computational Economics.
L. Bauwens & C.S. Bos & H.K. van Dijk, 1999.
"Adaptive Polar Sampling with an application to a Bayes measure of Value-at-Risk ,"
Econometric Institute Report
167, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] Villani, Mattias, 2005.
"Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space ,"
Working Paper Series
189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
[Downloadable!]
Maximo Camacho, 2002.
"Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
274, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
H.K. Van Dijk, 2002.
"On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model ,"
Econometric Institute Report
263, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!]
Lennart F. Hoogerheide & Johan F. Kaashoek, 2004.
"Functional Approximations to Likelihoods/Posterior Densities: A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Sampling ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
74, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006.
"Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 191-212.
[Downloadable!]
Access and
download statistics Did you know? About 1000 archives contribute their bibliographic data to RePEc .
This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .