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Some Evidence on the Continuity of the Growth Process among the G-7 Countries

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  • Ben-David, Dan
  • Papell, David H

Abstract

The stability of the growth process, whether growth rates are rising, falling, or constant, is one of the central questions of economic growth theory. We use recently developed techniques for identifying structural change in economic time series, and find evidence of multiple breaks in per capita real GDP of the G7 countries over the past 120 years. Once determined, these breaks are used to delineate time periods. Although there is some evidence of individual periods of slowdowns, the overall tendency appears to be one of increasing steady state growth over the long run. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 38 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 320-30

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:38:y:2000:i:2:p:320-30

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Cited by:
  1. Noguera, José, 2013. "Oil prices: Breaks and trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-67.
  2. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, 09.
  3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.
  4. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Lopez, Claude, 2010. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," MPRA Paper 25204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Landon-Lane, John S. & Robertson, Peter E., 2009. "Long-run growth in the OECD: A test of the parallel growth paths hypothesis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 346-355, July.
  6. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Multiple trend shifts and unit roots in US state income levels: implications for long-run growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 641-661, June.
  7. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
  8. Deleersnyder, B. & Geyskens, I. & Gielens, K.J.P. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "How cannibalistic is the internet channel? A study of the newspaper industry in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-91692, Tilburg University.
  9. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Deleersnyder, B. & Geyskens, I. & Gielens, K. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "How Cannibalistic is the Internet Channel?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-22-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  11. Attfield, Clifford & Temple, Jonathan, 2004. "Measuring Trend Output: How Useful Are the Great Ratios?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
  13. Antonio E. Noriega & Cid Alonso Rodríguez-Pérez, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.

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