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New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctuations

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  • Whelan, Karl

Abstract

The one-sector Solow-Ramsey growth model informs how most modern researchers characterize macroeconomic trends and cycles, and evidence supporting the model's balanced growth predictions is often cited. This paper shows, however, that the inclusion of recent data leads to the balanced growth predictions being rejected. An alternative balanced growth hypothesis---that the ratio of nominal consumption to nominal investment is stationary---is put forward, and new measures of the stochastic trends and cycles in aggregate US data are derived based on this hypothesis. The contrasting behavior of real and nominal ratios is consistent with a two-sector model of economic growth, with separate production technologies for consumption and investment and two stochastic trends underlying the long-run behavior of all macroeconomic series. Empirical estimates of these stochastic trends are presented based on a structural VAR and the role played in the business cycle by shocks to these trends is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl, 2006. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 5910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5910
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    1. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehdi Senouci, 2012. "Technical change in a neoclassical two-sector model of optimal growth," Working Papers halshs-00589627, HAL.
    2. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    4. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in hours, balanced growth, and the role of technology in the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 459-486.
    5. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    6. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    7. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Great Ratios, Balanced Growth and Stochastic Trends: Evidence for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    8. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank.
    9. Lavan Mahadeva & Juan Carlos parra, 2008. "Testing a DSGE model and its partner database," Borradores de Economia 4507, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1068, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balanced Growth; Technology Shocks; Two-Sector Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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