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How great are the great ratios?

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Author Info
David I. Harvey
Stephen J. Leybourne
Paul Newbold
Abstract

The balanced growth and neoclassical stochastic growth literatures imply stationarity of certain macroeconomic 'great ratios'. Four such ratios are considered: consumption:output, investment:output, the real interest rate and real money supply growth, and evidence for ratio stationarity in the G7 countries is examined. Univariate unit root and stationarity tests are performed, and analysis of the cointegrating relations between output, consumption and investment is conducted. Almost no evidence of stationarity is found for the consumption:output and investment:output great ratios. Empirical evidence supports real money supply growth stationarity, but is more mixed for the real interest rate.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Pages: 163-177
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:2:p:163-177

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Donaldson, John B. & Mehra, Rajnish, 1983. "Stochastic growth with correlated production shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Neusser, Klaus, 1991. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 3-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Serletis, Apostolos, 1994. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 329-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Claude Lopez & Javier Reyes, 2005. "Real Interest Rate Stationarity and Per Capita Consumption Growth Rate," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2005-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
  2. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Great Ratios, Balanced Growth and Stochastic Trends: Evidence for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hong Li & Vince Daly, 2009. "Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 185-200, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Herzer, Dierk & Kemper, Niels & Zamparelli, Luca, 2009. "Balanced growth and structural breaks: Evidence for Germany," MPRA Paper 14944, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University. [Downloadable!]
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