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Cointegration in a Macroeconomic System

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Author Info
Kunst, Robert
Neusser, Klaus

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Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run relationships within a set of six quarterly time-series on the Austrian economy by means of cointegration. After analyzing the univariate properties, especially with respect to the appropriate seasonal filter, the maximum-likelihood method proposed by Johansen (1988) is applied to estimate and test the cointegrating relationships. We found three such relations, implying that the system is driven by three independent stochastic time trends. In a next stage we investigate whether the empirically determined cointegrating relationships are compatible with implications derived from the neoclassical growth model with exogenous stochastic technical progress. It is found that the Austrian data strongly reject the propositions that the real interest rate and the log ratios of consumption to output, investment to output, and the real gross wage sum to output are stationary. Copyright 1990 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 5 (1990)
Issue (Month): 4 (Oct.-Dec.)
Pages: 351-65
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:5:y:1990:i:4:p:351-65

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  1. Paul D. Mcnelis & Anjum Siddiqui, 1994. "Debt And Deficit Dynamics In New Zealand: Did Financial Liberalization Matter?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 71-87, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Palaskas, Theodosios B. & Varangis, Panos N., 1991. "Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 758, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2005. "Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction," Economics Series 168, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Wagner, 2002. "A Comparison of Johansen's, Bierens and the Subspace Algorithm Method for Cointegration Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0210, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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  5. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2001. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Nonstationary Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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