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Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration

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Author Info
Alain Hecq
Franz Palm ()
Jean-Pierre Urbain

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Abstract

We consider VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common cyclical features. While the presence of cointegration reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, other types of common features lead to rank reduction of the short-run dynamics. We distinguish between strong and weak form reduced rank structures. Strong form reduced rank structures analyzed by Engle and Kozicki (1993) arise when a linear combination of the first differenced variables in a cointegrated VAR is white noise whereas in the presence of a weak form reduced rank structure, linear combinations of the first differenced variables corrected for the long-run effects are white noise. The weak form has an interest in its own. For instance, it is a necessary condition for the existence of first order codependent cycles in a VAR(2). Also, it is a necessary condition for the strong form. We also consider the mixed form which combines strong and weak forms. We discuss the model selection issues which arise from this distinction and propose a simple approach to testing for these structures using a sequence of likelihood ratio test statistics. The finite sample behavior of the sequential approach is analyzed in a Monte Carlo experiment. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of the different forms of reduced ranks with an empirical analysis of US business uctuations over the period 1954-1996.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 451.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_451

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Related research
Keywords: Serial correlation common features; reduced rank structure; cointegration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michel Beine & Alain Hecq, 1999. "Inference in Codependence : Some Monte Carlo Results and Applications," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 54, pages 04, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
  3. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  5. Gianluca Cubadda, 1999. "Common serial correlation and common business cycles: A cautious note," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 529-535. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  9. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kunst, Robert & Neusser, Klaus, 1990. "Cointegration in a Macroeconomic System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 351-65, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  12. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Neusser, Klaus, 1991. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 3-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-32, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez & Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes, 2006. "Evidence About Mercosur’S Business Cycle," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 179, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  2. Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 589, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005. "Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor without a Utility Function," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "The role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining international health expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(10), pages 1171-1186. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutiérrez & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2007. "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Working Papers Series 139, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. J. Breitung & B. Candelon, . "Common Cycles: A Frequency Domain Approach," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-99, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  10. Michel Beine & Bertrand Candelon & Alain Hecq, 2000. "Assessing a Perfect European Optimum Currency Area: A Common Cycles Approach," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 115-132, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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