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Separation, Weak Exogeneity and P-T Decomposition in Cointegrated VAR Systems with Common Features

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Author Info
Hecq, A.
Palm, F. C.
Urbain, C. J.-P.

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the concept of separability in multiple nonstationary time series displaying both common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of several entities such as countries, sectors, firms, imposing some form of separability and commonalities is often required to restrict the dimension of the parameter space. For this purpose we introduce the concept of common feature separation and investigate the relationships between separation in cointegration and separation in serial correlation common features. Loosely speaking we investigate whether a set of time series can be partitioned into subsets such that there are serial correlation common features in the sub-groups and that there do not exist linear combinations of the common cycles which are white noise. The paper investigates three issues. First, it provides conditions for separating joint cointegrating vectors into marginal cointegrating vectors as well as separating joint short-term dynamics into marginal short-term dynamics. Second, conditions for making permanent-transitory decompositions based on marginal systems are given. Third, issues of weak exogeneity are considered. Likelihood ratio type tests for the different hypotheses under study are proposed. An empirical analysis of the link between economic fluctuations in the U.S. and Canada shows the practical relevance of the approach proposed in this paper.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 660.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_660

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Related research
Keywords: separation; cointegration; common features; weak exogeneity; P-T decomposition; consumption function;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
    Other versions:
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview of Some Recent Developments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1221, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jesus Gonzalo & Clive W.J. Granger, 1991. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 91-33, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  8. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
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  15. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-91, May-June. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
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  21. Hall, Stephen & Lazarova, Stepana & Urga, Giovanni, 1999. " A Principal Components Analysis of Common Stochastic Trends in Heterogeneous Panel Data: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 749-67, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2001. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  24. Toru Konishi & Clive Granger, 1992. "Separation in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-51, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  25. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  26. Mathias Hoffmann, 2003. "International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 401-420, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Nonstationary Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  28. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
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  29. Soren JOHANSEN, 2001. "The Asymptotic Variance of the Estimated Roots in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/01, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-32, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Ericsson, Neil R., 1995. "Conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 159-171, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Jan J.J. Groen & Frank R. Kleibergen, 1999. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-055/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  33. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, . "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Working Papers 186, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gengenbach,Christian & Palm,Franz C. & Urbain,Jean-Pierre, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Common Factors," Research Memoranda 050, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "The role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining international health expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(10), pages 1171-1186. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm, 2008. "Studying Co-Movements in Large Multivariate Data Prior to Multivariate Modelling," CEIS Research Paper 125, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Christophe Rault, 2004. "Further results on weak-exogeneity in vector error correction models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 402, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03002, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
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